A new study by Moody’s Analytics predicts that Joe Biden is on course to defeat Donald Trump in November with two more electoral college votes than he secured in 2020. According to the report’s authors, chief economist Mark Zandi, senior economist Brendan LaCerda, and economist Justin Begley, Biden will likely win reelection with a slim margin, picking up North Carolina but losing in Arizona, which he won in 2020. Following their victories in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, Biden and Trump are the strong favourites to be their respective parties’ standard bearers in November, setting up a rematch of the 2020 election.
The analysis found that Biden won 308 electoral college votes, two more than he achieved in 2020 and 38 more than required for victory. However, the margin in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania would be very tight, at less than 1 percentage point per state. The outcome may not be determined on election night as several states face the prospect of automatic recounts and court challenges.
Moody’s admits its analysis for the 2020 election was faulty, when it incorrectly forecast a Trump re-election. It concluded that if the economy continues to perform well as anticipated and voter turnout and third-party vote share remain close to their recent historical norms, President Biden should win re-election. A new Quinnipiac University survey conducted January 25-29 found Biden leading Trump by 50 percent to 44 percent in the national presidential matchup.