Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in three of the last five national polls, with 47% support. The two candidates are likely to face each other in a rerun of the 2020 presidential election, where Biden took the White House for the Democrats and ousted Trump. Trump and Biden strategists will be closely monitoring polls between now and the election, considering them in key campaign decisions.
The Biden campaign has a significant question: his approval rating. At 38.9%, Biden might have an uphill struggle in the months ahead. Trump has a favorability rating of 43%, which is part of a steady and slight uptick from last June. A Quinnipiac University survey from January 25 to January 29 showed Biden six points ahead of Trump, which was Biden’s best result in a contest with Trump in the previous month. Gendered polling showed that 58% of women preferred Biden, compared with 36% for Trump, while the hypothetical scenario of a five-person general election also put the incumbent in the lead.
A report by Moody’s Analytics suggests that Biden could win two extra Electoral College votes over Trump in 2024 compared with his overall score in the 2020 presidential election. If the economy continues to perform well and voter turnout and third-party vote share remain close to their recent historical norms, President Biden should win reelection.
Voters are also concerned about Biden’s age, as Trump is 77 and would be 86 by the end of his presidency. A new poll by NBC News found that Trump is ahead of Biden by 23 points on whether either candidate has “the necessary physical and mental health to be president.”
